New Zealand v England First Test Betting: Strong Kiwis hard to ignore
New Zealand, unfashionable, under-the-radar New Zealand, are rated the No 2 team in the world. They
Created - 4 years ago
New Zealand, unfashionable, under-the-radar New Zealand, are rated the No 2 team in the world. They have won ten of their last 12 home series. They beat England 1-0 last year.
And, unlike their visitors, they are a settled group. Each of whom know and own their roles. Kane Williamson gets the plaudits with the bat but Tom Latham has outscored him in the last 12 months and England may well cast envious eyes at a confident and established batting line-up. Ross Taylor, Henry Nicholls, Colin de Grandhomme and BJ Watling all average more than 40 in the last year.
That strength is unheralded. The lazy cliché with the Kiwis is that they are a bowling team. Trent Boult, Tim Southee and Neil Wagner are more than capable of matching England's pace attack, Jofra Archer included.
That trio have hugely impressive numbers in the study period. Boult averages 25 and Southee and Wagner just 23. In the spin department they are workaday. England should not be too worried about the threat posed by Mitchell Santner or Todd Astle. They may not pick either, with Lockie Ferguson included in the squad.
Possible XI: Raval, Latham, Williamson, Taylor, Nicholls, Watling, De Grandhomme, Santner, Southee, Boult, Wagner.
England are delighted with the problems they have solved in the warm-ups. Dominic Sibley made runs to nail his place alongside Rory Burns in the opening position and the highly-rated Ollie Pope likewise to add ballast and beauty in the No 6 position.
Now the duo just need to show they can make the step up in class. It is a new era, with new coach Chris Silverwood keen to eschew the cavalier batting approach under his predecessor Trevor Bayliss. So England should be capable of making a significant step to banishing memories of, say, the 58 all out in Auckland last year or their numerous Ashes collapses.
Joe Root, forever looking nervously over his shoulder, could be the main beneficiary now he returns to No 4. He is surrounded by batters who can drop anchor and give him support. Jos Buttler, who keeps wicket, will still offer a bit of flair.
The one selection headache is Chris Woakes or Sam Curran to join Stuart Broad, Jofra Archer and Ben Stokes in the pace department? Jack Leach spins.
Possible XI: Burns, Sibley, Denly, Root, Stokes, Pope, Buttler, Curran, Archer, Leach, Broad.
This is the first Test to be played at the Bay Oval. Punters hate that. We like to have at least a good ten-year study to trawl through to try to understand the pitch. Instead we're left with first-class records. There have been eight games since 2015. In the most recent, New Zealand and India A teams played out a draw with both busting 450 batting first. Previously, Northern Districts and Otago 136 and 108 in the first digs with the former winning by eight wickets. The 2016-17 Plunkett Shield competition returned first-match innings scores of: 417/151/269.
New Zealand have been well-backed to take a 1-0 lead, probably because it has dawned on folks that the hosts are solid and reliable. No-one could argue England are the same because there is no evidence. They are a work in progress.
The Kiwis are [2.24] with England [2.46] and the draw [6.40]. No rain is forecast to keep us interested in the latter. It's not a great price about the tourists, who are poor starters on the road - two wins in their last 13 against the established nations.
We're still inclined, however, to want a bit of help from the trend for sides to bat first and win (as discussed on this week's Cricket...Only Bettor below). So the Kiwis would rate a strong wager if the flip was to go their way and they have the chance to put an inexperienced line-up under scoreboard pressure. They could take a cut to evens.
Williamson, who at 6/5 for a first-innings fifty has never failed to half-salute in a home series of two Tests or more, is the 2/1 jolly with Betfair Sportsbook. Taylor is next best at 7/2. Latham's 930 runs in eight Tests makes him the top bat in the world in the last 12 months. The 9/2 looks chunky.
Root is the forever favourite for top England honours at 5/2. But he's a big swerve at such skinny odds. The secret is out with Ben Stokes, who is down to 7/2 from big numbers in the summer. Burns, pipped by Stokes for overall series honours in the Ahses, could be the man to follow at 4s. Sibley is 5s and Pope 9s.
Archer is likely to be well-backed at 5/2 for top England bowler in the first-innings as he plays second fiddle to Broad at 2s.
And, unlike their visitors, they are a settled group. Each of whom know and own their roles. Kane Williamson gets the plaudits with the bat but Tom Latham has outscored him in the last 12 months and England may well cast envious eyes at a confident and established batting line-up. Ross Taylor, Henry Nicholls, Colin de Grandhomme and BJ Watling all average more than 40 in the last year.
That strength is unheralded. The lazy cliché with the Kiwis is that they are a bowling team. Trent Boult, Tim Southee and Neil Wagner are more than capable of matching England's pace attack, Jofra Archer included.
That trio have hugely impressive numbers in the study period. Boult averages 25 and Southee and Wagner just 23. In the spin department they are workaday. England should not be too worried about the threat posed by Mitchell Santner or Todd Astle. They may not pick either, with Lockie Ferguson included in the squad.
Possible XI: Raval, Latham, Williamson, Taylor, Nicholls, Watling, De Grandhomme, Santner, Southee, Boult, Wagner.
England are delighted with the problems they have solved in the warm-ups. Dominic Sibley made runs to nail his place alongside Rory Burns in the opening position and the highly-rated Ollie Pope likewise to add ballast and beauty in the No 6 position.
Now the duo just need to show they can make the step up in class. It is a new era, with new coach Chris Silverwood keen to eschew the cavalier batting approach under his predecessor Trevor Bayliss. So England should be capable of making a significant step to banishing memories of, say, the 58 all out in Auckland last year or their numerous Ashes collapses.
Joe Root, forever looking nervously over his shoulder, could be the main beneficiary now he returns to No 4. He is surrounded by batters who can drop anchor and give him support. Jos Buttler, who keeps wicket, will still offer a bit of flair.
The one selection headache is Chris Woakes or Sam Curran to join Stuart Broad, Jofra Archer and Ben Stokes in the pace department? Jack Leach spins.
Possible XI: Burns, Sibley, Denly, Root, Stokes, Pope, Buttler, Curran, Archer, Leach, Broad.
This is the first Test to be played at the Bay Oval. Punters hate that. We like to have at least a good ten-year study to trawl through to try to understand the pitch. Instead we're left with first-class records. There have been eight games since 2015. In the most recent, New Zealand and India A teams played out a draw with both busting 450 batting first. Previously, Northern Districts and Otago 136 and 108 in the first digs with the former winning by eight wickets. The 2016-17 Plunkett Shield competition returned first-match innings scores of: 417/151/269.
New Zealand have been well-backed to take a 1-0 lead, probably because it has dawned on folks that the hosts are solid and reliable. No-one could argue England are the same because there is no evidence. They are a work in progress.
The Kiwis are [2.24] with England [2.46] and the draw [6.40]. No rain is forecast to keep us interested in the latter. It's not a great price about the tourists, who are poor starters on the road - two wins in their last 13 against the established nations.
We're still inclined, however, to want a bit of help from the trend for sides to bat first and win (as discussed on this week's Cricket...Only Bettor below). So the Kiwis would rate a strong wager if the flip was to go their way and they have the chance to put an inexperienced line-up under scoreboard pressure. They could take a cut to evens.
Williamson, who at 6/5 for a first-innings fifty has never failed to half-salute in a home series of two Tests or more, is the 2/1 jolly with Betfair Sportsbook. Taylor is next best at 7/2. Latham's 930 runs in eight Tests makes him the top bat in the world in the last 12 months. The 9/2 looks chunky.
Root is the forever favourite for top England honours at 5/2. But he's a big swerve at such skinny odds. The secret is out with Ben Stokes, who is down to 7/2 from big numbers in the summer. Burns, pipped by Stokes for overall series honours in the Ahses, could be the man to follow at 4s. Sibley is 5s and Pope 9s.
Archer is likely to be well-backed at 5/2 for top England bowler in the first-innings as he plays second fiddle to Broad at 2s.
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